SpaceX shares climb following Morgan Stanley’s $300 target endorsement

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reaffirmed an Overweight rating on SpaceX, maintaining a $300 per share stock target in a note released on Sunday. Closing at $171.09 on October 5 following a 7.63% increase, the SpaceX stock price sits about 75% below that $300 objective. This supportive stance from Morgan Stanley arrived right around the time Elon Musk verified ongoing SpaceX TSMC conversations concerning the Terafab chip initiative.

Also Read: SpaceX Stock Forecast: Needham Sees $250, Bernstein $248, BofA $235

SpaceX Stock Target, $300 Forecast and TSMC Talks Explained

Currently, the SpaceX stock price trades at $172.21 overnight after shifting between a low of $158.62 and a high of $172.47 during the session. Trading volume reached roughly 134.4 million shares, notably higher than the 91.3 million average. Furthermore, the $300 SpaceX stock target stands significantly above the 52-week high of $225.64 and the consensus one-year estimate of $227.44.

Why Morgan Stanley Keeps Its SpaceX Stock Target At $300

Jonas titled his note “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” At a $159 valuation, he calculated the shares at approximately 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared to about 16 times for mega-cap artificial intelligence enablers. When adjusted for growth, that metric falls to roughly 0.3 times, sitting nearly 40% under the peer median.

Adam Jonas said:

“We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.”

The financial institution assigns a value of $127 per share to the Space and Connectivity segments, leaving about $32 per share allocated to artificial intelligence at the $159 mark. This valuation gap forms the core of the Morgan Stanley thesis, meaning the $300 price target relies heavily on the AI division’s performance.

SpaceX TSMC Talks Bring A New Chip Angle

On October 3, Musk confirmed on X that Terafab—a chip manufacturing venture supported by both SpaceX and Tesla—is engaged in preliminary talks with TSMC. The proposed facility would supply semiconductors to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.

Elon Musk had this to say:

“Just discussions, but something may come of it.”

At this stage, there is no official contract, established timeline, or financial figure, and TSMC has declined to issue a statement. Presently, the discussions serve more as an encouraging bonus rather than a fundamental requirement for the SpaceX stock target.

Starship Flight 15 Is The Next Big Test

Jonas stated:

“We believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target.”

Several milestones approach, including Starship Flight 15 scheduled for late October or early November. Jonas noted that a successful ship catch could represent the greatest positive catalyst since the company’s IPO, alongside third-quarter earnings anticipated around November 3. Any of these developments could significantly influence the trajectory of the SpaceX stock target.

Because trailing EPS remains at -$1.10, the $300 target depends on profitability projected years into the future. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge initiated coverage last week with a Buy recommendation and a $200 target, establishing a more conservative benchmark in the evaluation. For anyone tracking the Morgan Stanley perspective, upcoming test flights and AI agreements must meet expectations on time, given that the SpaceX stock price remains highly sensitive to flight test outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Morgan Stanley’s price target for SpaceX stock?

Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 per share price target for SpaceX with an Overweight rating, as reiterated by analyst Adam Jonas.

What was the SpaceX stock closing price prior to the note?

The SpaceX stock price closed at $171.09 on October 5, marking a 7.63% increase.

What is the Terafab chip project?

Terafab is an early-stage chip manufacturing venture backed by SpaceX and Tesla that is currently holding preliminary discussions with TSMC to potentially build semiconductors for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI.

When is Starship Flight 15 scheduled to take place?

Starship Flight 15 is slated for late October or early November and is viewed as a major upcoming catalyst for the company.

What do other financial firms forecast for SpaceX?

Needham has set a $250 forecast, Bernstein targets $248, BofA projects $235, and TD Cowen recently initiated coverage with a $200 target.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The details provided regarding stock targets, forecasts, and corporate discussions are based on reports and analyst notes. Readers should conduct their own thorough research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.